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France’s anti-far-right league is moving to block the rise of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in snap parliamentary elections that have left the euro zone’s second-largest economy in limbo over who will be the country’s next government.
According to preliminary estimates from four pollsters, the RN, which had hoped to secure a majority in the National Assembly, may have been pushed down to second or third place by a surge in support for the left.
Projections by Ipsos, Ifop, Opinionway and Ellerbe suggest that the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) could become the largest party in parliament, winning between 170 and 215 seats.
But President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc is closely following, with opinion polls predicting it will win between 140 and 180 seats — a significant drop from the roughly 250 seats it held in the outgoing National Assembly.
Estimates suggest that no single party has come close to winning a parliamentary majority.
The prediction comes after the NFP was hastily formed a month ago between the far-left Insubordinate France (LFI), the centre-right Socialist Party (PS), the Communist Party and the Greens in an attempt to stop the RN from coming to power.
When the first estimated results were published on Sunday, there were cries of surprise and tears within the RN electoral party.
The flag-waving and chants seen after the first round of parliamentary elections last week were replaced by a stunned silence.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left LFI party, called on Macron to give the NFP a chance to form a government. “The will of the people must be strictly respected. The defeat of the president and his coalition is certain,” he said.
The result was greeted with jubilation at a Socialist election event in Belleville, Paris, where chants of “people on the front line” and choruses of La Marseillaise rang out.
“It’s fantastic, of course it’s fantastic,” Nicolas Meyer Rossignol, the mayor of Rouen and a leading Socialist figure, told the Financial Times.
The predicted results suggest that a concerted anti-RN strategy in which left-wing and center-leaning parties strategically withdrew candidates from the runoff elections was successful.
After the first round of voting, Le Pen confidently predicted that the RN would win a majority to govern.
Marine Le Pen had high hopes for the election results © Yoann Vallat/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
If the final vote confirms this, predictions suggest that none of the three main powers will easily win a governing majority, potentially plunging France into a period of political deadlock.
This uncertainty will have an impact on both France and the EU, as France, along with Germany, has a significant influence over EU policy.
Financial markets were spooked before the first round of voting, when the RN was enjoying strong support, but have since calmed as the possibility of a hanging parliament increased.
The NFP proposes a heavy-taxing and spending economic program that would be a stark departure from Macron’s pro-business policies and enthusiasm for tax cuts.
In the French system, the president chooses the prime minister, who is usually chosen from the party with the most seats in the National Assembly, even if that party does not have a majority.
Macron may try to form a coalition government with lawmakers from various left-wing, centre-right parties, excluding the RN and the far-left LFI.
Such an arrangement would amount to “living together,” and given the significant policy differences between the two parties, such an agreement may be difficult to reach.
Jordan Bardella, RN’s 28-year-old president © Benoît Tessier/Reuters
The last resort would be to appoint a technocratic government led by an experienced but non-partisan figure, which would go completely against French political tradition.
Although pollsters have projected a much better outcome than Macron expected, the election will still weaken his authority.
Macron took a gamble by calling for early voting after his centrist Ensemble coalition suffered a crushing defeat to Le Pen’s RN party in the European Parliament elections in June.
The president defended the move, which surprised and angered many in his own camp, as a moment for clarification.
“It’s a victory for the Republicans. The vote shift was impressive. Wherever Republicans were in the second round, turnout increased,” Ellerbe leader Bernard Sananes said.
