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Soybean prices continue to fall
Soybeans fell sharply on speculative and technical selling. The industry expects Tropical Storm Beryl to move further inland, bringing heavy rains to parts of the southern Midwest and the eastern United States. The short-term forecast shows that the central and western growing regions are generally dry. This will create generally good growing conditions across many of the major U.S. growing regions. Soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell on favorable growing weather and the fundamental impact of a large U.S. crop. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s next Supply, Demand and Production Forecast is due to be released on Friday. Domestic Chinese soybean prices hit a two-month low, signaling bearish demand. Brazil continues to hold the majority of the global soybean market share.
Corn was mixed, with near-term contracts up and forward contracts down. Corn is watching the weather development but is generally good for most of the region. The rains in Beryl were mostly welcome and a prolonged dry pattern will help some farmers in the Northwest Corn Belt. In any case, the full extent of the crop damage will not be known for several months. Export demand remains strong, supporting ethanol margins. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks figures are due to be released on Wednesday. The industry is also monitoring heavy rains in northern China that could lead to corn imports. U.S. corn now has a price advantage over most competing producers. Only 36% of Brazil’s second crop is sold, slower than last year’s pace. CONAB’s latest outlook for Brazil is due to be released on Thursday.
Wheat prices were mixed. Wheat stabilized after Monday’s decline while keeping an eye on global weather issues. Parts of Russia and Ukraine are very hot and dry, with rain likely to delay harvests in parts of Europe, including France and Germany, and frost is a threat in parts of Argentina. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimates soft wheat production at 29.7 million tonnes in 2024, down from 35.1 million tonnes in 2023. Weather concerns over Black Sea crops have not staved off Russian wheat prices, and Russia remains the best option for most global buyers. In the United States, beryl is expected to delay soft red winter wheat harvesting activities in some areas, but conditions are generally favorable for hard red winter wheat harvesting activities. Growing conditions for spring wheat in the U.S. Northern Plains and Canada are mixed, but the U.S. crop is improving week-on-week in the latest USDA weekly crop progress and condition figures.
Tags: Agriculture Weather, Argentina, Brazil, China, Commodities, Conab, Corn, Crop Weather, Crops, Ethanol, Exports, France, Germany, Grains/Oilseeds, Harvest, Planting, Russia, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Soybean Products, Soybeans, Supply and Demand Report, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Ukraine, USDA, Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report, Wheat
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